Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Injury report: the Wizards list Justin Champagnie (out), Jamir Watkins (out). That is about 6 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Injury report: the Hornets list Coby White (out). That is about 5 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.2 |
| Win chance | CHA n/a · WAS n/a | CHA 58% · WAS 42% |
| Fair moneyline | CHA -136 · WAS +136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 112, Hornets 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Hornets by 19 and Wizards by 14.
Who's playing?
CHA Hornets
- Coby White Out Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain
- Kon Knueppel Out Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- Dennis Schroder Available Injury/Illness - Right Foot Inflammation / Soreness
- Grant Williams Out Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain
- Michael Ajayi Out G League - Two - Way
- Kylan Boswell Out G League - Two - Way
WAS Wizards
- Justin Champagnie Out Injury/Illness - Right Foot Surgery
- Jamir Watkins Out Injury/Illness - Left ACL Repair / Surgery
- Tristan Vukcevic Out Injury/Illness - Left Hip Impingement
- Tre Johnson Available Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Soreness / Tightness
- Reece Beekman Out G League - Two - Way
- Felix Okpara Out G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| CHA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.7 8 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 114.6 7 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 110.9 10 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.7% 13 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.0% 10 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 15.6 28 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 30.5% 4 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 37.2% 4 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 100.3 25 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | WAS 103 @ CHA 110 | CHA |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | CHA 129 @ WAS 112 | CHA |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ CHA 119 | CHA |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ CHA 126 | CHA |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | CHA 139 @ WAS 113 | CHA |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.