Track record
Every prediction is logged before kickoff and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. College football track record
Live picks, 2026
The live record starts with this season's first graded game. Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after the final whistle, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2020 to 2026 (1,801 games)
Each week was predicted using only games played before it. Settings were chosen on 2016-2019 and never re-tuned on these games.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 66.4% | 0.6112 |
| AZMango model | 66.5% | 0.6114 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 65.0% | 0.6304 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our extra adjustments (injuries, rest, travel) did not improve on the closing spread, so a guard rail keeps them switched off until they do. What we add is the explanation and probabilities you can trust.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 572 | 57% | 55% | |
| 60%-70% | 600 | 64% | 64% | |
| 70%-80% | 426 | 74% | 77% | |
| 80%-90% | 176 | 85% | 85% | |
| 90%-100% | 27 | 92% | 93% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark). Close bars mean the percentages mean what they say.