College football track record
Every FBS prediction is logged before kickoff and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NFL track record
Live picks
The live college record starts with the first graded game. Every pick is logged before kickoff and graded after the final whistle, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2020 onward (4,372 FBS games)
Each week was predicted using only games played before it. Settings were chosen on 2016-2019 and never re-tuned on these games.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 72.8% | 0.5259 |
| AZMango model | 72.8% | 0.5262 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 71.1% | 0.5559 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our own adjustments (Elo, yards per play, rest, travel) did not improve on the closing spread over the last two seasons, so the guard rail has them switched off. What we add is the explanation, a number for every pairing, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 1100 | 57% | 54% | |
| 60%-70% | 1007 | 65% | 67% | |
| 70%-80% | 689 | 75% | 73% | |
| 80%-90% | 806 | 85% | 85% | |
| 90%-100% | 770 | 95% | 94% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark).