Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans
NBA 2026-27 ·
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Injury report: the Pelicans list Yves Missi (out). That is about 3 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pelicans defense that ranks 23rd.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Pelicans -2.2.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 13 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 237.8 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · NOP n/a | ATL 60% · NOP 40% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -151 · NOP +151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 118, Hawks 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 20 and Pelicans by 13.
Who's playing?
ATL Hawks
- Jock Landale Available Injury/Illness - Nasal Fracture
- Mouhamed Gueye Out Injury/Illness - Left Foot Fracture
- RayJ Dennis Doubtful G League - Two - Way
- Zuby Ejiofor Doubtful G League - On Assignment
- Keshon Gilbert Doubtful G League - Two - Way
- Henri Veesaar Out Injury/Illness - Right ACL Tear
- Jalen Wilson Doubtful G League - Two - Way
NOP Pelicans
- Yves Missi Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
- Jordan Poole Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
- Malik Dia Questionable G League - Two - Way
- Jaron Pierre Jr. Questionable G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| ATL | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | NOP 100 @ ATL 117 | ATL |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | ATL 115 @ NOP 98 | ATL |
| 2024-12-02 | 2024-25 | NOP 112 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024-25 | ATL 126 @ NOP 111 | ATL |
| 2024-03-10 | 2023-24 | NOP 116 @ ATL 103 | NOP |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.