Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2026-27 ·
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 25th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Bucks -10.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Bucks 25th (-6.4).
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Bucks defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- The Bucks' shooting (56.3% eFG%, 3rd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Home court: the Bucks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Bucks 2nd (38.4%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · MIL n/a | CLE 64% · MIL 36% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE -175 · MIL +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bucks 114, Cavaliers 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Cavaliers by 21 and Bucks by 12.
Who's playing?
CLE Cavaliers
- Nae'Qwan Tomlin Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Stress Reaction
- Jaylon Tyson Out Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- Khalifa Diop Out G League - On Assignment
- Meleek Thomas Questionable Injury/Illness - Right Foot Inflammation / Soreness
MIL Bucks
Nobody listed.
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| CLE | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| +2.7 10 | Net rating | -6.4 25 |
| 114.5 9 | Offensive rating | 110.1 24 |
| 111.8 15 | Defensive rating | 116.5 27 |
| 55.5% 7 | Effective FG% | 56.3% 3 |
| 54.2% 15 | Opponent eFG% | 55.7% 25 |
| 14.2 15 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 25 |
| 27.0% 8 | Offensive rebound % | 21.7% 30 |
| 35.4% 19 | 3-point % | 38.4% 2 |
| 102.6 14 | Pace | 100.6 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | CLE 123 @ MIL 116 | CLE |
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | CLE 116 @ MIL 118 | MIL |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-26 | MIL 106 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | MIL 113 @ CLE 118 | CLE |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | CLE 112 @ MIL 100 | CLE |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.