ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BKN

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

67% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 67%BKN 33%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Nets -9.8.
The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Simulation: the Hawks win 6,680 of 10,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Upset odds: the Nets win 3,320 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 11 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -5.8
Total points	n/a	233.6
Win chance	ATL n/a · BKN n/a	ATL 67% · BKN 33%
Fair moneyline		ATL -201 · BKN +201

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nets 114, Hawks 120.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 22 and Nets by 11.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

ATL		BKN
3-3	Record	0-4
+1.2 14	Net rating	-9.9 28
112.5 14	Offensive rating	105.9 30
111.3 11	Defensive rating	115.9 26
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	52.0% 30
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	57.2% 28
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	15.8 29
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 23
36.7% 7	3-point %	34.2% 27
104.3 6	Pace	100.4 24

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-03	2025-26	ATL 141 @ BKN 107	ATL
2026-03-12	2025-26	BKN 97 @ ATL 108	ATL
2026-02-22	2025-26	BKN 104 @ ATL 115	ATL
2025-10-29	2025-26	ATL 117 @ BKN 112	ATL
2025-04-10	2024-25	ATL 133 @ BKN 109	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Nets 141-107 on the road (2026-04-03). The difference: they shot 68% effective field goal percentage to 57% and they made 20 threes to 12, a 24-point swing. CJ McCollum led the Hawks with 25 points.