ATL
BOS
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
62% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Simulation: the Celtics win 6,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- Home court: the Celtics play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,770 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · BOS n/a | ATL 38% · BOS 62% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +165 · BOS -165 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 117, Hawks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 13 and Celtics by 21.
Side by side
| ATL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | BOS 102 @ ATL 112 | ATL |
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | ATL 102 @ BOS 109 | BOS |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ BOS 106 | ATL |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | BOS 132 @ ATL 106 | BOS |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | ATL 119 @ BOS 115 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works