ATL
CHI
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 241.2 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · CHI n/a | ATL 66% · CHI 34% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -190 · CHI +190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 118, Hawks 123.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 22 and Bulls by 11.
Side by side
| ATL | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | CHI 126 @ ATL 123 | CHI |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | CHI 152 @ ATL 150 | CHI |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | ATL 123 @ CHI 128 | CHI |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-25 | ATL 110 @ CHI 94 | ATL |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-25 | CHI 133 @ ATL 141 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works