ATL
CLE
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 5,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Cavaliers 8th (27.0%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,660 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Cavaliers 19th (35.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 15 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Cavaliers 15th (14.2).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 12th (74.2%), Cavaliers 18th (73.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 234 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · CLE n/a | ATL 47% · CLE 53% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +115 · CLE -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 118, Hawks 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 15 and Cavaliers by 18.
Side by side
| ATL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 2026-27 | CLE 111 @ ATL 114 | ATL |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | CLE 102 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
| 2026-04-08 | 2025-26 | ATL 116 @ CLE 122 | CLE |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | CLE 123 @ ATL 130 | ATL |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | ATL 109 @ CLE 117 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works