ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DAL

Our pick

DALDallas Mavericks

50% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 50%DAL 50%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Mavericks can win

Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Mavericks win 5,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.0).
Relative strength: the Mavericks rank 13th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.21).

Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not

Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Mavericks 26th (12.8).
The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 17th.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DAL -0.1
Total points	n/a	234
Win chance	ATL n/a · DAL n/a	ATL 50% · DAL 50%
Fair moneyline		ATL +100 · DAL -100

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Mavericks 117, Hawks 117.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 16 and Mavericks by 16.

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Side by side

ATL		DAL
3-3	Record	3-2
+1.2 14	Net rating	-4.8 23
112.5 14	Offensive rating	108.7 26
111.3 11	Defensive rating	113.5 20
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	52.9% 25
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	54.5% 17
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	14.0 13
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	23.4% 25
36.7% 7	3-point %	34.4% 26
104.3 6	Pace	105.0 4

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-03-18	2025-26	ATL 135 @ DAL 120	ATL
2026-03-10	2025-26	DAL 112 @ ATL 124	ATL
2025-04-02	2024-25	ATL 118 @ DAL 120	DAL
2024-11-25	2024-25	DAL 129 @ ATL 119	DAL
2024-04-04	2023-24	ATL 95 @ DAL 109	DAL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 20 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.5%)

DAL

Cooper Flagg F

21.3 pts, 6.6 reb, 4.6 ast in 33.4 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Kyrie Irving G

18 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 27.2 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DAL

Naji Marshall F

15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 3.4 ast in 29.4 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Mavericks 135-120 on the road (2026-03-18). The difference: they committed 8 fewer turnovers (11 to 19) and they made 14 threes to 11, a 9-point swing.