ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 48%DEN 52%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Home court: the Nuggets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 11th.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Hawks 14th (+1.2).

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,830 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Nuggets -3.2.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
The Hawks' offense (112.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 16 or more.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -0.7
Total points	n/a	233.2
Win chance	ATL n/a · DEN n/a	ATL 48% · DEN 52%
Fair moneyline		ATL +107 · DEN -107

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 117, Hawks 117.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 16 and Nuggets by 17.

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Side by side

ATL		DEN
3-3	Record	2-2
+1.2 14	Net rating	+4.1 7
112.5 14	Offensive rating	118.2 1
111.3 11	Defensive rating	114.1 21
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
36.7% 7	3-point %	38.8% 1
104.3 6	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-09	2025-26	ATL 110 @ DEN 87	ATL
2025-12-05	2025-26	DEN 134 @ ATL 133	DEN
2025-01-01	2024-25	ATL 120 @ DEN 139	DEN
2024-12-08	2024-25	DEN 141 @ ATL 111	DEN
2024-04-06	2023-24	ATL 110 @ DEN 142	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Nuggets 110-87 on the road (2026-01-09). The difference: they committed 13 fewer turnovers (6 to 19) and they shot 57% effective field goal percentage to 49%. Jalen Johnson led the Hawks with 29 points.