ATL
DET
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Simulation: the Pistons win 6,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pistons play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pistons 3rd (30.8%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,480 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Pistons 24th (15.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 11 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Pistons 15th (35.8%).
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · DET n/a | ATL 35% · DET 65% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +188 · DET -188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 116, Hawks 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 11 and Pistons by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | ATL 130 @ DET 129 | ATL |
| 2025-12-12 | 2025-26 | ATL 115 @ DET 142 | DET |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | ATL 98 @ DET 99 | DET |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | DET 120 @ ATL 112 | DET |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | DET 148 @ ATL 143 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works