ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

HOU

Our pick

HOUHouston Rockets

69% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 31%HOU 69%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Rockets can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Simulation: the Rockets win 6,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Hawks +4.2.
Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Hawks 14th (+1.2).

Disadvantages Why Rockets may not

Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Rockets 26th (15.4).
Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,070 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Rockets 19th (13.8).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 10 or more.
Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	HOU -6.6
Total points	n/a	230
Win chance	ATL n/a · HOU n/a	ATL 31% · HOU 69%
Fair moneyline		ATL +226 · HOU -226

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Rockets 119, Hawks 112.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 10 and Rockets by 23.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

Plain links. We are not paid for them and take no bets.

Side by side

ATL		HOU
3-3	Record	5-0
+1.2 14	Net rating	+5.2 6
112.5 14	Offensive rating	114.6 8
111.3 11	Defensive rating	109.4 6
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	54.0% 18
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	53.0% 6
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	15.4 26
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	34.3% 1
36.7% 7	3-point %	36.2% 11
104.3 6	Pace	100.0 27

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-26	2026-27	ATL 110 @ HOU 120	HOU
2026-10-24	2026-27	HOU 121 @ ATL 114	HOU
2026-03-20	2025-26	ATL 95 @ HOU 117	HOU
2026-01-29	2025-26	HOU 104 @ ATL 86	HOU
2025-03-25	2024-25	ATL 114 @ HOU 121	HOU

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 6 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.0%)

HOU

Kevin Durant F

25.7 pts, 5.5 reb, 4.7 ast in 36.4 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

HOU

Alperen Sengun C

20.6 pts, 9 reb, 6.1 ast in 33.8 min, 52% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

HOU

Amen Thompson G

18.3 pts, 7.7 reb, 5.3 ast in 37.6 min, 53% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Rockets beat the Hawks 120-110 at home (2026-10-26). The difference: they won the boards 52 to 35 and they shot 58% effective field goal percentage to 48%. Alperen Sengun led the Rockets with 29 points.