ATL
IND
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.8 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · IND n/a | ATL 58% · IND 42% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -138 · IND +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 116, Hawks 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 19 and Pacers by 14.
Side by side
| ATL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ IND 129 | IND |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | IND 116 @ ATL 132 | ATL |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | ATL 128 @ IND 108 | ATL |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | IND 118 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | IND 118 @ ATL 124 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works