ATL
LAC
Atlanta Hawks @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Home court: the Clippers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 5,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Body clock: the Hawks cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,920 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Clippers defense that ranks 18th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Clippers 20th (14.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 17 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 12th (74.2%), Clippers 25th (72.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · LAC n/a | ATL 49% · LAC 51% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +103 · LAC -103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 115, Hawks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 17 and Clippers by 17.
Side by side
| ATL | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-3 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ ATL 92 | LAC |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | ATL 105 @ LAC 102 | ATL |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | LAC 121 @ ATL 98 | LAC |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | ATL 105 @ LAC 131 | LAC |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | ATL 110 @ LAC 93 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works