ATL
MIA
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,470 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.3 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Heat 17th (14.2).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 4,530 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 15 or more.
- History: the Heat won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 238.3 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · MIA n/a | ATL 55% · MIA 45% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -121 · MIA +121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 119, Hawks 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 18 and Heat by 15.
Side by side
| ATL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | MIA 129 @ ATL 117 | MIA |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ MIA 143 | MIA |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | MIA 128 @ ATL 97 | MIA |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | ATL 127 @ MIA 115 | ATL |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | MIA 126 @ ATL 111 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works