ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

NYK

Our pick

NYKNew York Knicks

62% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 38%NYK 62%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Knicks can win

The Knicks' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 5th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
Simulation: the Knicks win 6,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Knicks in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Knicks may not

Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,750 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 13 or more.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Knicks 15th (14.3).
Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	NYK -4
Total points	n/a	227.2
Win chance	ATL n/a · NYK n/a	ATL 38% · NYK 62%
Fair moneyline		ATL +166 · NYK -166

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Knicks 116, Hawks 112.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 13 and Knicks by 21.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

ATL		NYK
3-3	Record	2-3
+1.2 14	Net rating	+7.6 3
112.5 14	Offensive rating	116.4 3
111.3 11	Defensive rating	108.7 4
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	55.6% 5
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	53.3% 7
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	13.7 9
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	29.3% 5
36.7% 7	3-point %	37.5% 3
104.3 6	Pace	99.8 28

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-30	Playoffs	NYK 140 @ ATL 89	NYK
2026-04-28	Playoffs	ATL 97 @ NYK 126	NYK
2026-04-25	Playoffs	NYK 114 @ ATL 98	NYK
2026-04-23	Playoffs	NYK 108 @ ATL 109	ATL
2026-04-20	Playoffs	ATL 107 @ NYK 106	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 4 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.3%)

NYK

Jalen Brunson G

26.5 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.6 ast in 35.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

NYK

Karl-Anthony Towns C

19.3 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.4 ast in 30.8 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

NYK

OG Anunoby F

17.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.6 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Knicks beat the Hawks 140-89 on the road (East 1st Round - Game 6). The difference: they shot 66% effective field goal percentage to 43% and they committed 9 fewer turnovers (10 to 19). OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 29 points.