ATL
OKC
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- Simulation: the Thunder win 6,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,500 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 20th (24.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · OKC n/a | ATL 35% · OKC 65% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +185 · OKC -185 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 117, Hawks 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 12 and Thunder by 22.
Side by side
| ATL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | ATL 129 @ OKC 140 | OKC |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | OKC 117 @ ATL 100 | OKC |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | OKC 135 @ ATL 119 | OKC |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024-25 | ATL 104 @ OKC 128 | OKC |
| 2024-01-03 | 2023-24 | OKC 138 @ ATL 141 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works