ATL

Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ORL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

57% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

AZMango model

ATL 57%ORL 43%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Magic -12.5.
Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Simulation: the Hawks win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Magic 29th (34.0%).
Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Magic win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 14 or more.
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -2.2
Total points	n/a	232.3
Win chance	ATL n/a · ORL n/a	ATL 57% · ORL 43%
Fair moneyline		ATL -132 · ORL +132

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Magic 115, Hawks 118.
80% of simulations land between Hawks by 19 and Magic by 14.

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Side by side

ATL		ORL
3-3	Record	1-3
+1.2 14	Net rating	-0.2 17
112.5 14	Offensive rating	110.4 22
111.3 11	Defensive rating	110.6 9
55.0% 11	Effective FG%	52.4% 28
54.6% 19	Opponent eFG%	53.9% 9
13.6 7	Turnovers per 100	13.9 11
24.3% 20	Offensive rebound %	24.8% 19
36.7% 7	3-point %	34.0% 29
104.3 6	Pace	103.1 12

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-21	2026-27	ATL 132 @ ORL 125	ATL
2026-04-01	2025-26	ATL 130 @ ORL 101	ATL
2026-03-16	2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 124	ATL
2025-11-04	2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 127	ATL
2025-10-24	2025-26	ATL 111 @ ORL 107	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 9 of 30 (opponent eFG% 53.9%)

ORL

Paolo Banchero F

22.6 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast in 35 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ORL

Franz Wagner F

19.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.6 ast in 30.2 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ORL

Desmond Bane G

19.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.8 ast in 33.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Magic 132-125 on the road (2026-10-21). No single stat stood out; they were a little better across the board. Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Hawks with 31 points.