ATL
PHI
Atlanta Hawks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 5,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Strength: the 76ers rank 5th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (13.1).
- Strength: the 76ers rank 7th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.22).
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,850 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 16 or more.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.1 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · PHI n/a | ATL 48% · PHI 52% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +106 · PHI -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 116, Hawks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 16 and 76ers by 17.
Side by side
| ATL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | PHI 116 @ ATL 125 | ATL |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ PHI 107 | ATL |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | PHI 117 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | ATL 142 @ PHI 134 | ATL |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | ATL 124 @ PHI 110 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works