ATL
PHX
Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Suns -14.3.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 5,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Suns 19th (14.5).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,470 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 15 or more.
- Body clock: the Hawks cross 2 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.9 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · PHX n/a | ATL 55% · PHX 45% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -124 · PHX +124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 115, Hawks 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 18 and Suns by 15.
Side by side
| ATL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 1-2 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | PHX 103 @ ATL 110 | ATL |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | ATL 124 @ PHX 122 | ATL |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | PHX 117 @ ATL 122 | ATL |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | ATL 115 @ PHX 123 | PHX |
| 2024-03-21 | 2023-24 | ATL 115 @ PHX 128 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works