ATL
POR
Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 5,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Trail Blazers 2nd (30.9%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
- Body clock: the Hawks cross 3 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Trail Blazers 12th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 4,460 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Hawks 7th (13.6), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Trail Blazers 28th (34.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · POR n/a | ATL 45% · POR 55% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +124 · POR -124 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 118, Hawks 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 15 and Trail Blazers by 18.
Side by side
| ATL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | POR 101 @ ATL 135 | ATL |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | ATL 101 @ POR 117 | POR |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | POR 127 @ ATL 113 | POR |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024-25 | ATL 110 @ POR 114 | POR |
| 2024-03-27 | 2023-24 | POR 106 @ ATL 120 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works