ATL
SAC
Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Kings -16.6.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 7,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Kings 29th (-10.1).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,740 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 9 or more.
- Body clock: the Hawks cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.5 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · SAC n/a | ATL 73% · SAC 27% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -265 · SAC +265 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 114, Hawks 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 24 and Kings by 9.
Side by side
| ATL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 0-5 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | SAC 113 @ ATL 123 | ATL |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | ATL 133 @ SAC 100 | ATL |
| 2024-11-18 | 2024-25 | ATL 109 @ SAC 108 | ATL |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-25 | SAC 123 @ ATL 115 | SAC |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | ATL 107 @ SAC 122 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works