ATL
SAS
Atlanta Hawks @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Hawks 14th (+1.2).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Hawks defense that ranks 19th.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,140 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Hawks 6th (15.4), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 11 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · SAS n/a | ATL 31% · SAS 69% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +218 · SAS -218 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 119, Hawks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 11 and Spurs by 23.
Side by side
| ATL | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ ATL 98 | SAS |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | ATL 126 @ SAS 135 | SAS |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | SAS 126 @ ATL 125 | SAS |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | ATL 126 @ SAS 133 | SAS |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023-24 | SAS 99 @ ATL 109 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works