ATL
TOR
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Hawks +4.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- History: the Raptors won 5 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Hawks win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Hawks 7th (36.7%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Hawks 12th (74.2%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.1 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · TOR n/a | ATL 40% · TOR 60% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +151 · TOR -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 117, Hawks 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 13 and Raptors by 20.
Side by side
| ATL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | ATL 100 @ TOR 118 | TOR |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | ATL 117 @ TOR 134 | TOR |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | TOR 109 @ ATL 97 | TOR |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | TOR 138 @ ATL 118 | TOR |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | TOR 117 @ ATL 94 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works