ATL
WAS
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 6,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hawks' offense (112.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,640 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · WAS n/a | ATL 64% · WAS 36% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL -175 · WAS +175 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 116, Hawks 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Hawks by 21 and Wizards by 12.
Side by side
| ATL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| +1.2 14 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 112.5 14 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 111.3 11 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 55.0% 11 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 54.6% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 13.6 7 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 24.3% 20 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 36.7% 7 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 104.3 6 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | WAS 96 @ ATL 126 | ATL |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 98 @ ATL 119 | ATL |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | ATL 131 @ WAS 116 | ATL |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-26 | ATL 113 @ WAS 132 | WAS |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | ATL 125 @ WAS 111 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works