BKN

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

ATL

Our pick

ATLAtlanta Hawks

76% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

BKN 24%ATL 76%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Hawks can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Nets -9.8.
Simulation: the Hawks win 7,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).

Disadvantages Why Hawks may not

Upset odds: the Nets win 2,360 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 8 or more.
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Hawks 27th (0.18).
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	ATL -9.2
Total points	n/a	233.6
Win chance	BKN n/a · ATL n/a	BKN 24% · ATL 76%
Fair moneyline		BKN +323 · ATL -323

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Hawks 122, Nets 112.
80% of simulations land between Nets by 8 and Hawks by 26.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

BKN		ATL
0-4	Record	3-3
-9.9 28	Net rating	+1.2 14
105.9 30	Offensive rating	112.5 14
115.9 26	Defensive rating	111.3 11
52.0% 30	Effective FG%	55.0% 11
57.2% 28	Opponent eFG%	54.6% 19
15.8 29	Turnovers per 100	13.6 7
23.8% 23	Offensive rebound %	24.3% 20
34.2% 27	3-point %	36.7% 7
100.4 24	Pace	104.3 6

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-03	2025-26	ATL 141 @ BKN 107	ATL
2026-03-12	2025-26	BKN 97 @ ATL 108	ATL
2026-02-22	2025-26	BKN 104 @ ATL 115	ATL
2025-10-29	2025-26	ATL 117 @ BKN 112	ATL
2025-04-10	2024-25	ATL 133 @ BKN 109	ATL

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 11 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.6%)

ATL

Jalen Johnson F

22.1 pts, 10 reb, 7.7 ast in 35.1 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

ATL

Nickeil Alexander-Walker G

20.3 pts, 3.4 reb, 3.5 ast in 33.3 min, 45% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

ATL

Dyson Daniels G

11.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 5.8 ast in 32.5 min, 51% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Hawks beat the Nets 141-107 on the road (2026-04-03). The difference: they shot 68% effective field goal percentage to 57% and they made 20 threes to 12, a 24-point swing. CJ McCollum led the Hawks with 25 points.