BKN

Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BOS

Our pick

BOSBoston Celtics

80% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

AZMango model

BKN 20%BOS 80%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Celtics can win

Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.3 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Nets -9.8.
Simulation: the Celtics win 8,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.

Disadvantages Why Celtics may not

Upset odds: the Nets win 1,950 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Celtics 27th (12.8).
Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 6 or more.
Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	BOS -11.4
Total points	n/a	227.8
Win chance	BKN n/a · BOS n/a	BKN 20% · BOS 80%
Fair moneyline		BKN +413 · BOS -413

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Celtics 120, Nets 108.
80% of simulations land between Nets by 6 and Celtics by 28.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

BKN		BOS
0-4	Record	3-1
-9.9 28	Net rating	+7.5 4
105.9 30	Offensive rating	116.6 2
115.9 26	Defensive rating	109.1 5
52.0% 30	Effective FG%	55.1% 10
57.2% 28	Opponent eFG%	52.2% 4
15.8 29	Turnovers per 100	12.7 2
23.8% 23	Offensive rebound %	29.0% 6
34.2% 27	3-point %	36.5% 8
100.4 24	Pace	98.1 30

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-10-27	2026-27	BKN 124 @ BOS 125	BOS
2026-02-27	2025-26	BKN 111 @ BOS 148	BOS
2026-01-23	2025-26	BOS 130 @ BKN 126	BOS
2025-11-21	2025-26	BKN 113 @ BOS 105	BKN
2025-11-18	2025-26	BOS 113 @ BKN 99	BOS

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 5 of 30 (opponent eFG% 52.2%)

BOS

Jayson Tatum F

23.1 pts, 9.6 reb, 6.1 ast in 34 min, 43% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BOS

Paul George F

22.2 pts, 6 reb, 3.5 ast in 31.5 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BOS

Payton Pritchard G

16.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.1 ast in 32.2 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Celtics beat the Nets 125-124 at home (2026-10-27). The difference: they made 13 more free throws (30 to 17). Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 40 points.