BKN
CHA
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 223.7 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · CHA n/a | BKN 29% · CHA 71% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +240 · CHA -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 116, Nets 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 10 and Hornets by 24.
Side by side
| BKN | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | CHA 110 @ BKN 103 | CHA |
| 2026-03-31 | 2025-26 | CHA 117 @ BKN 86 | CHA |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | CHA 103 @ BKN 116 | BKN |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | BKN 117 @ CHA 136 | CHA |
| 2025-03-08 | 2024-25 | BKN 102 @ CHA 105 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works