BKN
CHI
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bulls
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bulls can win
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bulls win 5,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Bulls 17th (14.5), Nets 29th (15.8).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Nets 13th (74.1%).
Disadvantages Why Bulls may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,430 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nets -9.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Bulls 29th (12.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bulls lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Bulls rank 29th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.2 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · CHI n/a | BKN 44% · CHI 56% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +126 · CHI -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 121, Nets 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 14 and Bulls by 18.
Side by side
| BKN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | CHI 115 @ BKN 123 | BKN |
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | BKN 102 @ CHI 124 | CHI |
| 2026-01-16 | 2025-26 | CHI 109 @ BKN 112 | BKN |
| 2025-12-03 | 2025-26 | BKN 113 @ CHI 103 | BKN |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | BKN 110 @ CHI 116 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works