BKN
CLE
Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
75% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.5 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Cavaliers +1.0, Nets -9.8.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 8 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · CLE n/a | BKN 25% · CLE 75% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +297 · CLE -297 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 121, Nets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 8 and Cavaliers by 25.
Side by side
| BKN | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | BKN 121 @ CLE 125 | CLE |
| 2026-03-01 | 2025-26 | CLE 106 @ BKN 102 | CLE |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | BKN 84 @ CLE 112 | CLE |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | CLE 131 @ BKN 124 | CLE |
| 2025-03-11 | 2024-25 | BKN 104 @ CLE 109 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works