BKN
DEN
Brooklyn Nets @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 7,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,640 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · DEN n/a | BKN 26% · DEN 74% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +279 · DEN -279 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 120, Nets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 9 and Nuggets by 25.
Side by side
| BKN | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | 2025-26 | BKN 103 @ DEN 107 | DEN |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025-26 | DEN 115 @ BKN 127 | BKN |
| 2025-01-10 | 2024-25 | BKN 105 @ DEN 124 | DEN |
| 2024-10-29 | 2024-25 | DEN 144 @ BKN 139 | DEN |
| 2023-12-22 | 2023-24 | DEN 122 @ BKN 117 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works