BKN
DET
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Nets -9.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.7 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 1,650 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -12.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 224.6 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · DET n/a | BKN 16% · DET 84% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +507 · DET -507 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 119, Nets 106.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 4 and Pistons by 29.
Side by side
| BKN | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | DET 138 @ BKN 100 | DET |
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | BKN 107 @ DET 105 | BKN |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | BKN 77 @ DET 130 | DET |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | DET 125 @ BKN 107 | DET |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | BKN 94 @ DET 115 | DET |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works