BKN
GSW
Brooklyn Nets @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors -1.8, Nets -9.8.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 10 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Warriors 23rd (72.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · GSW n/a | BKN 29% · GSW 71% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +247 · GSW -247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 120, Nets 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 10 and Warriors by 23.
Side by side
| BKN | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | BKN 106 @ GSW 109 | GSW |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | GSW 120 @ BKN 107 | GSW |
| 2025-03-06 | 2024-25 | GSW 121 @ BKN 119 | GSW |
| 2024-11-25 | 2024-25 | BKN 128 @ GSW 120 | BKN |
| 2024-02-05 | 2023-24 | GSW 109 @ BKN 98 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works