BKN
MEM
Brooklyn Nets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
74% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 7,420 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,580 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Grizzlies 29th (71.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -8.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.8 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · MEM n/a | BKN 26% · MEM 74% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +288 · MEM -288 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 120, Nets 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 8 and Grizzlies by 25.
Side by side
| BKN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ BKN 126 | BKN |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ MEM 103 | MEM |
| 2024-12-13 | 2024-25 | BKN 119 @ MEM 135 | MEM |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | MEM 104 @ BKN 106 | BKN |
| 2024-10-30 | 2024-25 | BKN 119 @ MEM 106 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works