BKN
MIA
Brooklyn Nets @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to the Heat in our ratings.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Heat 4th (12.8), Nets 29th (15.8).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.3 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · MIA n/a | BKN 33% · MIA 67% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +206 · MIA -206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 121, Nets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 11 and Heat by 22.
Side by side
| BKN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | BKN 110 @ MIA 126 | MIA |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ MIA 124 | MIA |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | MIA 106 @ BKN 95 | MIA |
| 2025-02-07 | 2024-25 | MIA 86 @ BKN 102 | BKN |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | MIA 106 @ BKN 97 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works