BKN
NOP
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pelicans can win
- Simulation: the Pelicans win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pelicans -2.2, Nets -9.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Pelicans in our ratings.
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pelicans 10th (13.8), Nets 29th (15.8).
Disadvantages Why Pelicans may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pelicans lose by 12 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Pelicans 27th (71.7%).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 27th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.7%).
- Weak spot: the Pelicans rank 26th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NOP -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.8 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · NOP n/a | BKN 36% · NOP 64% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +181 · NOP -181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 121, Nets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 12 and Pelicans by 22.
Side by side
| BKN | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | BKN 113 @ NOP 116 | NOP |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | NOP 101 @ BKN 119 | BKN |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | NOP 114 @ BKN 119 | BKN |
| 2024-11-11 | 2024-25 | BKN 107 @ NOP 105 | BKN |
| 2024-03-19 | 2023-24 | NOP 104 @ BKN 91 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works