BKN
OKC
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
82% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 8,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Thunder +3.6, Nets -9.8.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 1,760 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -12.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.2 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · OKC n/a | BKN 18% · OKC 82% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +468 · OKC -468 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 119, Nets 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 5 and Thunder by 29.
Side by side
| BKN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | OKC 121 @ BKN 92 | OKC |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | BKN 86 @ OKC 105 | OKC |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | OKC 129 @ BKN 121 | OKC |
| 2025-01-19 | 2024-25 | BKN 101 @ OKC 127 | OKC |
| 2024-01-05 | 2023-24 | OKC 115 @ BKN 124 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works