BKN
ORL
Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
66% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Simulation: the Magic win 6,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Magic 11th (13.9), Nets 29th (15.8).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 3,450 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 23rd of 30 in points per game (113.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.3 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · ORL n/a | BKN 34% · ORL 66% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +190 · ORL -190 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 118, Nets 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 12 and Magic by 22.
Side by side
| BKN | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ ORL 118 | ORL |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | ORL 104 @ BKN 103 | ORL |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | BKN 98 @ ORL 105 | ORL |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024-25 | BKN 101 @ ORL 102 | ORL |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024-25 | ORL 100 @ BKN 92 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works