BKN
POR
Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
76% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.7 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Nets -9.8.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.5 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Nets 28th (-9.9).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,430 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Trail Blazers 24th (72.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.7 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · POR n/a | BKN 24% · POR 76% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +311 · POR -311 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 121, Nets 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 8 and Trail Blazers by 25.
Side by side
| BKN | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ POR 134 | POR |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | POR 114 @ BKN 95 | POR |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | POR 121 @ BKN 102 | POR |
| 2025-01-14 | 2024-25 | BKN 132 @ POR 114 | BKN |
| 2024-01-17 | 2023-24 | BKN 103 @ POR 105 | POR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works