BKN
SAC
Brooklyn Nets @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BKNBrooklyn Nets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nets -9.8, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Nets win 5,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Nets in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Kings 21st (13.7).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 0.6 points to the Nets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Nets may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 4,900 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Kings 14th (14.1), Nets 29th (15.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nets lose by 16 or more.
- Body clock: the Nets cross 3 time zones.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BKN -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.5 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · SAC n/a | BKN 51% · SAC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN -104 · SAC +104 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 117, Nets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 17 and Kings by 16.
Side by side
| BKN | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | SAC 99 @ BKN 116 | BKN |
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | BKN 122 @ SAC 126 | SAC |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | SAC 110 @ BKN 96 | SAC |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024-25 | BKN 108 @ SAC 103 | BKN |
| 2024-04-07 | 2023-24 | SAC 107 @ BKN 77 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works