BKN
SAS
Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
85% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.9 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Nets -9.8.
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 1,460 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -13.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · SAS n/a | BKN 15% · SAS 85% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +587 · SAS -587 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 122, Nets 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 3 and Spurs by 30.
Side by side
| BKN | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ BKN 110 | SAS |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | BKN 107 @ SAS 118 | SAS |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | BKN 113 @ SAS 127 | SAS |
| 2024-12-27 | 2024-25 | SAS 96 @ BKN 87 | SAS |
| 2024-03-17 | 2023-24 | BKN 115 @ SAS 122 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works