BKN
TOR
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Nets -9.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,070 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 6 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Raptors 17th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -10.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · TOR n/a | BKN 21% · TOR 79% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +383 · TOR -383 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 119, Nets 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 6 and Raptors by 28.
Side by side
| BKN | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | BKN 101 @ TOR 136 | TOR |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | TOR 81 @ BKN 96 | BKN |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | BKN 109 @ TOR 119 | TOR |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | TOR 119 @ BKN 109 | TOR |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | TOR 120 @ BKN 109 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works