BKN
UTA
Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Simulation: the Jazz win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
- Body clock: the Nets cross 2 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.6%).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in points allowed per game (125.7).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 29th of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (119.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · UTA n/a | BKN 41% · UTA 59% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +141 · UTA -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 119, Nets 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 14 and Jazz by 19.
Side by side
| BKN | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | BKN 109 @ UTA 99 | BKN |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | UTA 123 @ BKN 110 | UTA |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024-25 | BKN 111 @ UTA 112 | UTA |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024-25 | UTA 105 @ BKN 94 | UTA |
| 2024-01-29 | 2023-24 | UTA 114 @ BKN 147 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works