BKN
WAS
Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Simulation: the Wizards win 5,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Nets -9.8.
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to the Wizards in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- Upset odds: the Nets win 4,080 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Wizards lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Wizards rank 30th of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (-10.9).
- Weak spot: the Wizards rank 30th of 30 in defense, points allowed per 100 possessions (119.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 233 |
| Win chance | BKN n/a · WAS n/a | BKN 41% · WAS 59% |
| Fair moneyline | BKN +145 · WAS -145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 118, Nets 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Nets by 14 and Wizards by 20.
Side by side
| BKN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -9.9 28 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 105.9 30 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 115.9 26 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 52.0% 30 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 57.2% 28 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 15.8 29 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 34.2% 27 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 100.4 24 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ BKN 121 | BKN |
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | WAS 113 @ BKN 127 | BKN |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ WAS 119 | WAS |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | BKN 129 @ WAS 106 | BKN |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | BKN 115 @ WAS 112 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works