BOS
BKN
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.3 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Nets -9.8.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,720 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.8 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · BKN n/a | BOS 73% · BKN 27% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -268 · BKN +268 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 110, Celtics 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 24 and Nets by 9.
Side by side
| BOS | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 2026-27 | BKN 124 @ BOS 125 | BOS |
| 2026-02-27 | 2025-26 | BKN 111 @ BOS 148 | BOS |
| 2026-01-23 | 2025-26 | BOS 130 @ BKN 126 | BOS |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | BKN 113 @ BOS 105 | BKN |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | BOS 113 @ BKN 99 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works