BOS
CHA
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
58% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Hornets -7.2.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Hornets win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 220 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · CHA n/a | BOS 58% · CHA 42% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -138 · CHA +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 109, Celtics 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 19 and Hornets by 14.
Side by side
| BOS | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | CHA 102 @ BOS 113 | BOS |
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | BOS 114 @ CHA 99 | BOS |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | CHA 118 @ BOS 89 | CHA |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | CHA 86 @ BOS 93 | BOS |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | CHA 94 @ BOS 130 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works