BOS
CHI
Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Bulls -16.2.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,840 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · CHI n/a | BOS 72% · CHI 28% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -252 · CHI +252 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 114, Celtics 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 24 and Bulls by 9.
Side by side
| BOS | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | CHI 99 @ BOS 134 | BOS |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | CHI 105 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ CHI 114 | CHI |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 101 @ BOS 115 | BOS |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | CHI 100 @ BOS 122 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works