BOS
CLE
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Cavaliers defense that ranks 15th.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Cavaliers +1.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Cavaliers 10th (+2.7).
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Cavaliers win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Cavaliers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Cavaliers 10th (14.7), Celtics 27th (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Cavaliers 10th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.3 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · CLE n/a | BOS 52% · CLE 48% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -110 · CLE +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 114, Celtics 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 18 and Cavaliers by 16.
Side by side
| BOS | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | 2025-26 | BOS 109 @ CLE 98 | BOS |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | BOS 117 @ CLE 115 | BOS |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | CLE 105 @ BOS 125 | BOS |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | CLE 123 @ BOS 116 | CLE |
| 2025-02-04 | 2024-25 | BOS 112 @ CLE 105 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works