BOS
DAL
Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Mavericks defense that ranks 20th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Celtics 4th (+7.3), Mavericks 23rd (-5.1).
- Simulation: the Celtics win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 15 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Mavericks 13th (0.21), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.2 |
| Win chance | BOS n/a · DAL n/a | BOS 56% · DAL 44% |
| Fair moneyline | BOS -128 · DAL +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 114, Celtics 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Celtics by 18 and Mavericks by 15.
Side by side
| BOS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +7.5 4 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 29.0% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 36.5% 8 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 98.1 30 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ BOS 120 | BOS |
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | BOS 110 @ DAL 100 | BOS |
| 2025-02-06 | 2024-25 | DAL 127 @ BOS 120 | DAL |
| 2025-01-25 | 2024-25 | BOS 122 @ DAL 107 | BOS |
| 2024-06-17 | Playoffs | DAL 88 @ BOS 106 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works